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Decision-making technology



Overview

Thedecision-makingtechnologyincludesqualitativeanalysisandquantitativeanalysis.

Qualitativemethod

1.Brainstorming2.Expertopinionmethod3.Delphimethod(DelphiTechnique)

Quantitativemethod

1.Cost-effectivenessanalysis(break-evenanalysis)2.Marginalanalysis3.(net)presentvalueanalysis-NPVmethod4.Expectedvaluemethod-decisiontreemethod5.OperationsresearchLearningmethod6.Matrixanalysismethod

Qualitativemethod

Amethodofanalysis,evaluationandjudgmentbasedoncollectiveexperience,knowledgeandwisdom.

Brainstorming

Thehostconvenespeoplewithdifferentknowledgebackgroundstofullydiscussatopic,encouragesnewideasbutdoesnotallowcriticismatthebeginning,andstrivestosparkthecollisionofideasDiscovernewideasornewideasintheprocess.Itisoftenusedintheinitialstageofdraftingaplan.

Expertopinion

Theexpertopinionmethodusestheformofadiscussionmeetingtogathersomeknowledgeableandknowledgeableexpertstoaskthemquestionsfordecision-making.Expertsputforwardvariousplans,discussedthem,andfinallydecidedonthebestplan.Thismethodhascertaineffects,buttherearealsosomeseriousflaws.Forexample,participantsmaybesubjecttothemutualinfluenceofexpertcompaniesandthesuperstitionofauthoritytoleadtothephenomenonof"herding",ortheymaybestubbornduetothe"face"issue..

Delphi

AnewexpertopinionmethoddevelopedbytheAmericanRANDCorporation.Themethodischaracterizedbyanonymity,feedback,andnumericalrationality.

ThegeneralprocessoftheDelphimethodis:firstraiserelevantsituationsorquestionstorelevantexperts,andasktheexpertstowritedowntheirwrittenopinions;then,thehostexchangestheiropinionsandsendsthemtothoseexperts.Aftertheanalysisismade,theopinionsarecollected,synthesizedandsorted,andthenfedbacktoeveryone;everyonechangesandaddsandthensendsthemtothemoderator.Repeatthismanytimesuntiltheopinionsoftheexpertsaregenerallyconsistent.TheDelphimethodisolatespossibleinteractionsbetweengroupmembers,anditdoesnotrequireparticipantstobepresent.

Quantitativemethod

Volumecostandprofitanalysis

istograsptheprofitandlossbyanalyzingtherelationshipbetweenthethreevariablesofproductcost,salesvolume,andsalesprofitThecriticalpointofchange(breakfastpoint)andthemethodofselection.

Corporateprofitisthebalanceofsalesrevenueafterdeductingcosts;salesrevenueistheproductofproductsalesvolumeandsalesunitprice;productcostsincludethetotalcostoffactorycostsandsalesexpenses,dividedintofixedcostsandvariablecost.

(1)Classificationofcost:

Variablecost(VariableCost):referstothecostthatthetotalamountchangesindirectproportionwiththeincreaseordecreaseofoutput;Itmainlyincludesrawmaterialsandwages.Asfarasasingleproductisconcerned,thevariablecostpartisunchanged;

FixedCost:referstothetotalamountthatdoesnotfollowtheoutputwithinacertainperiodandwithinacertainbusinessvolume.Increaseordecreaseandchangethecost.Mainlyreferstofixedassetdepreciationandmanagementexpenses;

(2)Break-evenanalysismodel:

I=S-(Cv×Q+F)

=P×Q-(Cv×Q+F)

=(P-Cv)QF

I—SalesProfitP—ProductSalesPrice

F—totalfixedcostsCv—variablecostperpiece

Q—salesquantityS—salesrevenue

(3)Break-evenanalysis:

Totalcost:C=F+Cv×Q

Totalincome:S=P×Q

Listthebreakevenequation:C=S

P×Q=F+Cv×Q

Break-evenpoint:Q=F/(P-Cv)

(4)Threeconcepts:

Unitmarginalcontribution:Thedifferencebetweenthesellingpriceofasingleproductandthevariablecostofasingleproductiscalledtheunitmarginalcontribution(=P-Cv);

Marginalcontributionrate:theratioofthemarginalcontributionofaunitproducttothesellingpriceofasingleproduct(=unitmarginalcontribution/P);

Totalmarginalcontribution:theproductofunitmarginalcontributionandsalesvolumeiscalledThetotalmarginalcontribution(=unitmarginalcontribution×Q).

Marginalanalysis

Themarginalanalysisdoesnotconsiderthetotalamountandaveragecost,butassumesthattheotherelementsofacertainproductarenotchanged,andonlyoneelementinputischanged.Theincrementalchangeinincomebroughtbyanadditionalunitofinputandtheimpactoncosts.

Aslongastheincrementalrevenueexceedstheincrementalcost,increasingproductionwillincreaseprofits,andyoucancontinuetoinvestmore.

Whentheincreaseinincomeequalstheincreaseininvestment,theinvestmentshouldbestoppeddecisively.

Whentheinputincreasestothethirdunit,boththeaverageoutputandthemarginaloutputincrease,themarginaloutputreachesitspeak,andtheunitinputbenefitisthebest.

Whenthemarginaloutputofeachunitofinputbeginstodecrease,thetotaloutputisstillincreasing,butthebenefitoftheunitofinputdeclines.Whenthemarginaloutputiszero,thetotaloutputalsobeginstodecline.

Whentheamountofinputisfixed,theplanwiththelargestmarginaloutputisthebestplan.

Undercertainconditions,themarginalbenefitofunitinvestmentisdiminishing,somarginalanalysiscanbeusedtodeterminewhethertocontinuetoinvest.

(Net)PresentValueAnalysis

Consideringthetimevalueofmonetaryfunds,thenetcashflowofdifferentyearsisconvertedtothestartingyearwithacertaindiscountrate,andthentheinitialinvestmentisdeducted.Methodstomakethefundincomeofdifferentschemescomparable

NPV=∑[St/(1+i)t]-Po

Stisthenetcashreceiptsinyeart,Iisthediscountrate,nistheeffectivelifeoftheinvestmentplan,andPoistheinvestmentamountatthebeginningofthefirstyear.Theplanwithanetpresentvaluegreaterthanzeroisafeasibleplan;theplanwiththelargestnetpresentvalueisthebestplan.

(iisthediscountrate-alsoknownasthe"discountrate".Referstotheinterestrateatwhichpaymentsreceivedorpaidinthefutureareconvertedintothepresentvalue.Here,thediscountratecanbereferredtoThebankloaninterestrateisdetermined.Thelongerthediscountyearandthehigherthediscountrate,thesmallerthepresentvalue.

Forexample:

Thediscountrateis10%.Itisequivalentto100*(1+10%)yuan,anditwillbe100*(1+10%)*(1+10%)inthenextyear.Inotherwords,whatyoucanbuywith100yuanin2013isequivalentYoucanbuysomethingfor110yuannextyear.)

ExpectedValueMethod-DecisionTree

Itismainlyusedforriskydecision-making,anditisnecessarytopre-estimatethevariouspossibleresultsofaplanThevalueofgainsandlossesandtheprobabilitiesthatvarioussituationsmayoccur.

Thesumofthetwoproductsofvariousresultsistheexpectedvalueofthisprogram.Similarly,theexpectedvalueofeachprogramiscalculatedandthencomparedtomakeachoice.Usuallychoosetheonewithhigherexpectationsasthebestsolution.

ExpectationvalueE=∑Fi×Pi(θ)

Operationalresearchmethods

DuringWorldWarII,theneedforwarstimulatedoperationalresearchThedevelopmentofsciencehasproducedmanyquantitativemethodstosolvepracticalmilitaryproblems.AfterWorldWarII,thesemilitarymethodshavebeenwidelyusedinvariousfieldssuchasindustry,agriculture,economy,andsociety.Atthesametime,operationsresearchhasalsodevelopedrapidly.

Bythe20thcenturyand60,manybranchesofoperationsresearchhavebeenformed,suchaslinearprogramming,nonlinearprogramming,integerprogramming,goalprogramming,dynamicprogramming,graphtheoryandnetwork,queuingtheory,storagetheory,Strategytheoryandsoon.

Linearprogrammingisthemostcommonlyusedmethodinoperationsresearch.Becauseofitssimplemodelandmaturesolutionmethod,itisalsothemostsuccessfulone.Linearprogrammingismainlytosolvetheproblemofreasonableallocationoflimitedresources.Forexample,forproductsIandIIproducedbyacertainfactory,bothproductsrequiretwokindsofrawmaterials,AandB.Thequestionis,underthelimitationofthesupplyofrawmaterials,howmucheachproductIandproductIIarrangetoproduce,sothatthecompanycanobtainprofitsHighest?Thisproblemcanbeeasilysolvedbylinearprogramming.

MatrixAnalysis

MatrixDataAnalysisChart,whichisoneofthesevennewqualitymanagementtools.

Iftherelationshipbetweentheelementsonthematrixchartcanbequantitativelyexpressedwithdata,theresultscanbesortedandanalyzedmoreaccurately.Thismatrixdiagrammethodthatcanberepresentedbydataiscalledmatrixdataanalysis.AmongthesevennewtoolsofQC,thedatamatrixanalysismethodistheonlymethodthatusesdataanalysisproblems,buttheresultsmuststillberepresentedingraphs.

ThemainmethodofdatamatrixanalysisisPrincipalcomponentanalysis,whichcanbeusedtoobtainalotofusefulinformationfromtheoriginaldata.Principalcomponentanalysisisamultivariatestatisticalmethodthatconvertsmultiplevariablesintoafewcomprehensivevariables.

Thematrixdataanalysismethodissimilartothematrixdiagrammethod.Itisdifferentfromthematrixdiagrammethod:insteadoffillingsymbolsonthematrixdiagram,itfillsindatatoformamatrixforanalyzingthedata.

Itisamethodofquantitativeanalysisofproblems.Atpresent,itisstillwidelyusedinJapan,anditisonlyproposedasa"reservetool".Theapplicationofthismethodoftenrequiresthehelpofanelectroniccomputertosolvetheproblem.

7.Orthogonalexperimentmethod

Findouttheaspectsandfactorsthataffectdecision-making,conductexperiments,andanalyzethebestplan.

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