Overview
Thedecision-makingtechnologyincludesqualitativeanalysisandquantitativeanalysis.
Qualitativemethod
1.Brainstorming2.Expertopinionmethod3.Delphimethod(DelphiTechnique)
Quantitativemethod
1.Cost-effectivenessanalysis(break-evenanalysis)2.Marginalanalysis3.(net)presentvalueanalysis-NPVmethod4.Expectedvaluemethod-decisiontreemethod5.OperationsresearchLearningmethod6.Matrixanalysismethod
Qualitativemethod
Amethodofanalysis,evaluationandjudgmentbasedoncollectiveexperience,knowledgeandwisdom.
Brainstorming
Thehostconvenespeoplewithdifferentknowledgebackgroundstofullydiscussatopic,encouragesnewideasbutdoesnotallowcriticismatthebeginning,andstrivestosparkthecollisionofideasDiscovernewideasornewideasintheprocess.Itisoftenusedintheinitialstageofdraftingaplan.
Expertopinion
Theexpertopinionmethodusestheformofadiscussionmeetingtogathersomeknowledgeableandknowledgeableexpertstoaskthemquestionsfordecision-making.Expertsputforwardvariousplans,discussedthem,andfinallydecidedonthebestplan.Thismethodhascertaineffects,buttherearealsosomeseriousflaws.Forexample,participantsmaybesubjecttothemutualinfluenceofexpertcompaniesandthesuperstitionofauthoritytoleadtothephenomenonof"herding",ortheymaybestubbornduetothe"face"issue..
Delphi
AnewexpertopinionmethoddevelopedbytheAmericanRANDCorporation.Themethodischaracterizedbyanonymity,feedback,andnumericalrationality.
ThegeneralprocessoftheDelphimethodis:firstraiserelevantsituationsorquestionstorelevantexperts,andasktheexpertstowritedowntheirwrittenopinions;then,thehostexchangestheiropinionsandsendsthemtothoseexperts.Aftertheanalysisismade,theopinionsarecollected,synthesizedandsorted,andthenfedbacktoeveryone;everyonechangesandaddsandthensendsthemtothemoderator.Repeatthismanytimesuntiltheopinionsoftheexpertsaregenerallyconsistent.TheDelphimethodisolatespossibleinteractionsbetweengroupmembers,anditdoesnotrequireparticipantstobepresent.
Quantitativemethod
Volumecostandprofitanalysis
istograsptheprofitandlossbyanalyzingtherelationshipbetweenthethreevariablesofproductcost,salesvolume,andsalesprofitThecriticalpointofchange(breakfastpoint)andthemethodofselection.
Corporateprofitisthebalanceofsalesrevenueafterdeductingcosts;salesrevenueistheproductofproductsalesvolumeandsalesunitprice;productcostsincludethetotalcostoffactorycostsandsalesexpenses,dividedintofixedcostsandvariablecost.
(1)Classificationofcost:
Variablecost(VariableCost):referstothecostthatthetotalamountchangesindirectproportionwiththeincreaseordecreaseofoutput;Itmainlyincludesrawmaterialsandwages.Asfarasasingleproductisconcerned,thevariablecostpartisunchanged;
FixedCost:referstothetotalamountthatdoesnotfollowtheoutputwithinacertainperiodandwithinacertainbusinessvolume.Increaseordecreaseandchangethecost.Mainlyreferstofixedassetdepreciationandmanagementexpenses;
(2)Break-evenanalysismodel:
I=S-(Cv×Q+F)
=P×Q-(Cv×Q+F)
=(P-Cv)QF
I—SalesProfitP—ProductSalesPrice
F—totalfixedcostsCv—variablecostperpiece
Q—salesquantityS—salesrevenue
(3)Break-evenanalysis:
Totalcost:C=F+Cv×Q
Totalincome:S=P×Q
Listthebreakevenequation:C=S
P×Q=F+Cv×Q
Break-evenpoint:Q=F/(P-Cv)
(4)Threeconcepts:
Unitmarginalcontribution:Thedifferencebetweenthesellingpriceofasingleproductandthevariablecostofasingleproductiscalledtheunitmarginalcontribution(=P-Cv);
Marginalcontributionrate:theratioofthemarginalcontributionofaunitproducttothesellingpriceofasingleproduct(=unitmarginalcontribution/P);
Totalmarginalcontribution:theproductofunitmarginalcontributionandsalesvolumeiscalledThetotalmarginalcontribution(=unitmarginalcontribution×Q).
Marginalanalysis
Themarginalanalysisdoesnotconsiderthetotalamountandaveragecost,butassumesthattheotherelementsofacertainproductarenotchanged,andonlyoneelementinputischanged.Theincrementalchangeinincomebroughtbyanadditionalunitofinputandtheimpactoncosts.
Aslongastheincrementalrevenueexceedstheincrementalcost,increasingproductionwillincreaseprofits,andyoucancontinuetoinvestmore.
Whentheincreaseinincomeequalstheincreaseininvestment,theinvestmentshouldbestoppeddecisively.
Whentheinputincreasestothethirdunit,boththeaverageoutputandthemarginaloutputincrease,themarginaloutputreachesitspeak,andtheunitinputbenefitisthebest.
Whenthemarginaloutputofeachunitofinputbeginstodecrease,thetotaloutputisstillincreasing,butthebenefitoftheunitofinputdeclines.Whenthemarginaloutputiszero,thetotaloutputalsobeginstodecline.
Whentheamountofinputisfixed,theplanwiththelargestmarginaloutputisthebestplan.
Undercertainconditions,themarginalbenefitofunitinvestmentisdiminishing,somarginalanalysiscanbeusedtodeterminewhethertocontinuetoinvest.
(Net)PresentValueAnalysis
Consideringthetimevalueofmonetaryfunds,thenetcashflowofdifferentyearsisconvertedtothestartingyearwithacertaindiscountrate,andthentheinitialinvestmentisdeducted.Methodstomakethefundincomeofdifferentschemescomparable
NPV=∑[St/(1+i)t]-Po
Stisthenetcashreceiptsinyeart,Iisthediscountrate,nistheeffectivelifeoftheinvestmentplan,andPoistheinvestmentamountatthebeginningofthefirstyear.Theplanwithanetpresentvaluegreaterthanzeroisafeasibleplan;theplanwiththelargestnetpresentvalueisthebestplan.
(iisthediscountrate-alsoknownasthe"discountrate".Referstotheinterestrateatwhichpaymentsreceivedorpaidinthefutureareconvertedintothepresentvalue.Here,thediscountratecanbereferredtoThebankloaninterestrateisdetermined.Thelongerthediscountyearandthehigherthediscountrate,thesmallerthepresentvalue.
Forexample:
Thediscountrateis10%.Itisequivalentto100*(1+10%)yuan,anditwillbe100*(1+10%)*(1+10%)inthenextyear.Inotherwords,whatyoucanbuywith100yuanin2013isequivalentYoucanbuysomethingfor110yuannextyear.)
ExpectedValueMethod-DecisionTree
Itismainlyusedforriskydecision-making,anditisnecessarytopre-estimatethevariouspossibleresultsofaplanThevalueofgainsandlossesandtheprobabilitiesthatvarioussituationsmayoccur.
Thesumofthetwoproductsofvariousresultsistheexpectedvalueofthisprogram.Similarly,theexpectedvalueofeachprogramiscalculatedandthencomparedtomakeachoice.Usuallychoosetheonewithhigherexpectationsasthebestsolution.
ExpectationvalueE=∑Fi×Pi(θ)
Operationalresearchmethods
DuringWorldWarII,theneedforwarstimulatedoperationalresearchThedevelopmentofsciencehasproducedmanyquantitativemethodstosolvepracticalmilitaryproblems.AfterWorldWarII,thesemilitarymethodshavebeenwidelyusedinvariousfieldssuchasindustry,agriculture,economy,andsociety.Atthesametime,operationsresearchhasalsodevelopedrapidly.
Bythe20thcenturyand60,manybranchesofoperationsresearchhavebeenformed,suchaslinearprogramming,nonlinearprogramming,integerprogramming,goalprogramming,dynamicprogramming,graphtheoryandnetwork,queuingtheory,storagetheory,Strategytheoryandsoon.
Linearprogrammingisthemostcommonlyusedmethodinoperationsresearch.Becauseofitssimplemodelandmaturesolutionmethod,itisalsothemostsuccessfulone.Linearprogrammingismainlytosolvetheproblemofreasonableallocationoflimitedresources.Forexample,forproductsIandIIproducedbyacertainfactory,bothproductsrequiretwokindsofrawmaterials,AandB.Thequestionis,underthelimitationofthesupplyofrawmaterials,howmucheachproductIandproductIIarrangetoproduce,sothatthecompanycanobtainprofitsHighest?Thisproblemcanbeeasilysolvedbylinearprogramming.
MatrixAnalysis
MatrixDataAnalysisChart,whichisoneofthesevennewqualitymanagementtools.
Iftherelationshipbetweentheelementsonthematrixchartcanbequantitativelyexpressedwithdata,theresultscanbesortedandanalyzedmoreaccurately.Thismatrixdiagrammethodthatcanberepresentedbydataiscalledmatrixdataanalysis.AmongthesevennewtoolsofQC,thedatamatrixanalysismethodistheonlymethodthatusesdataanalysisproblems,buttheresultsmuststillberepresentedingraphs.
ThemainmethodofdatamatrixanalysisisPrincipalcomponentanalysis,whichcanbeusedtoobtainalotofusefulinformationfromtheoriginaldata.Principalcomponentanalysisisamultivariatestatisticalmethodthatconvertsmultiplevariablesintoafewcomprehensivevariables.
Thematrixdataanalysismethodissimilartothematrixdiagrammethod.Itisdifferentfromthematrixdiagrammethod:insteadoffillingsymbolsonthematrixdiagram,itfillsindatatoformamatrixforanalyzingthedata.
Itisamethodofquantitativeanalysisofproblems.Atpresent,itisstillwidelyusedinJapan,anditisonlyproposedasa"reservetool".Theapplicationofthismethodoftenrequiresthehelpofanelectroniccomputertosolvetheproblem.
7.Orthogonalexperimentmethod
Findouttheaspectsandfactorsthataffectdecision-making,conductexperiments,andanalyzethebestplan.